Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Caution

Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."